A lot of consumer strategy tools and frameworks were built for a world that felt relatively stable. People moved through life in a predictable order, context changed slowly, and assumptions held for long enough to plan against. That's no longer the environment most teams are operating in. Today, change is more frequent, more layered, and less linear. People are navigating personal shifts alongside a broader backdrop that feels unsettled economically, culturally, and socia

The marketing research world traditionally avoids a lot of fieldwork during the holidays. The logic is that December is "not representative" of normal behavior. But, if the only time we gather data is in months where people feel steady, rested, and regulated, we end up modeling behavior that exists only in ideal conditions. Most people don't make decisions in ideal conditions.

The holidays are supposed to feel familiar. But for many people, they also mark change. It might be the first year in a new city. The first year without someone. The first holiday with a new baby, a new partner, a new job - or a new reality altogether. Even the most "traditional" seasons sits on top of transition. And yet, year after year, marketing leans on sameness: cheerful predictability, nostalgia, and "just like always" messaging.